January 2025
Europe entered into another winter, and to state it clearly, migrations are once again popping out as the number one topic, even though we all believed that the flow had simmered down. Regarding this, the Balkans are once again under the reflectors, because Frontex is already registering an increase of about thirty-something percent in comparison to the previous year, and where, on our Western Balkans route. Now, when you look at this from the standpoint of the security structures in Belgrade, Sarajevo, Skopje – you can see that we are not speaking only of humanity anymore but about the capacities of countries, coordination which is not working that well, and the relations with Brussels, which is, to tell the truth, more and more being denounced to a simple game of chicken.
The main flow is still passing through Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary, but, to tell the truth, we are witnessing an increasing use of the alternative network of corridors via Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina – those are the roads on which everything comes down to improvisation and getting by, and in winter conditions, it literally becomes a game of life or death. However, paradoxically, exactly these roads are enabling the migrants to avoid the Hungarian wall and Croatian increased patrols, so we come once again to the old issue of control and borders everyone likes to mention but no one dares to resolve.
The winter conditions, of course, are only deepening the analytical depth of the crisis. Overcrowded centers, bad heating, doctors who cannot reach everywhere, flourishing smuggling networks – this is all creating a controlled chaos that the governments are attempting to present as being “under control”. Serbia is keeping in the system around ten thousand people, and another several hundred outside it, and balances between a humanitarian approach and the EU demands to make everything stricter. In B&H, the story is the same, only more complicated, because all levels of government are shifting responsibility to each other. In Una Sana Canton, they are already traditionally asking for help from Sarajevo, but while waiting for decisions and funds, local businessmen and caterers feel the consequences of this prolonged pressure.
And politics? That’s where the real game begins. The borders have become a tool for gaining points. Each government in the region is using migrants as proof that it is keeping “everything under control”, and as a symbol of cooperation with the EU, but also as an internal political argument before the elections. Brussels, of course, is elegantly shifting part of the responsibility to the Balkan states, pushing them into the role of the buffer zone to the external borders of the Union. Regarding this, let us not forget Turkey, which is still holding the finger on the fuse. Ankara can change the course of migrations whenever it deems suitable – if its relations with Brussels deteriorate or if Syria or Libya become hotspots; all migrant routes can change overnight.
Regional cooperation? It exists on paper, but in practice, it is more of a ritual than a system. The cooperation process in Southeastern Europe, the Nordic Baltic Six, all those meetings and initiatives – it all sounds good, but concrete results are denounced to ad hoc agreements. We also have the joint operation of Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia, but it strictly deals with security, not the humanitarian aspect. There is no joint database, no unique biometric systems, no synchronization of asylum systems, and this institutional vacuum is exactly used by the smugglers who are, just to say, always one step ahead.
Now, when we look at the winter of 2024/2025, this is not only a seasonal occurrence anymore – it is a demonstration exercise of political temperature between Brussels and the Balkans. The EU is speaking of control and deportations, and the Balkan states the fact out that Brussels is leaving them to manage on their own. The lack of trust is becoming a structural problem of the European security architecture, and while the politicians are negotiating, new actors emerge – Turkey, UAE, Russia – who use media and social networks to shape the narrative on the “European responsibility”.
And in the meantime, digital technology and artificial intelligence are taking up the scene. The EU countries are announcing the introduction of face recognition programs at borders, and Bulgaria is testing algorithms that predict migration flows based on the weather and social factors. All this seems impressive until you realize that we are entering the phase of securitization of everyday life, where the issue of movement of people transforms into the issue of control over data and algorithms that decide who is “recognized” by the camera, and who is not.
In the end, the migrations in the Balkans are not an emergency anymore – this is a reality that we have become accustomed to. The question is not only how to stop the flows but how to manage them without losing political stability and elementary dignity. Regarding this, the Balkans remain the reflection of Europe: a place where all contradictions between humanitarian discourse and realpolitik practice, between the idea of solidarity and the fear of Otherness can be seen. And exactly in this tension between control and empathy, Europe, whether it wanted it or not, is showing its real face.
Author: Miljan Petrović