January 2025
Europe is once again entering another winter, and regarding this, the energy image of Southeastern Europe is increasingly resembling a complex mosaic, in which realism and rhetoric constantly conflict. The Balkans, as always, is at the crossroads – between Russian gas, American LNG, Turkish streams, and European funds. And while Brussels is insisting on a fast transition, the region is, in fact, balancing between old dependencies and new promises. In this context, energy has become much more than a resource – it is an instrument of politics, the reflection of the economy, and, to tell the truth, also a form of control that defines the entire security architecture of the region.
When we examine the gas flows, we can see that the “Turk Stream” is still pumping Russian gas towards the Balkans, but now under a different rhetoric – no one is speaking of dependence anymore, but of partnership. At the same time, LNG terminals in Krk and Alexandroupolis represent exquisite symbols of energy emancipation, even though, in the background, there is an entire network of intermediaries, long-term contracts, and credit arrangements that make this feeling of independence, well, so to speak, quite relative. Regarding this, the analytical depth of the crisis is not reflected solely in numbers and statistics, but in the manner the countries cope with the illusion of choice between different dependencies.
Serbia, for example, is still contracting the majority of its gas from Russia, but now, it is doing it with an occasional choice of alternative sources, usually for media reasons. North Macedonia and the B&H are seeking to link with the LNG chains, while in the background, the war is being waged for control of the fuses. In the meantime, Bulgaria and Romania are attempting to turn towards the Black Sea, hoping to find their own sources, while Turkey is still playing all sides – cooperating with both Moscow and Brussels – as a master of controlled chaos, knowing how to transform every energy-tense situation into geopolitical capital.
Of course, everyone is speaking of energy transition, but the reality is showing that the region still relies on coal, fuel oil, and old facilities. The plans for the construction of wind parks and solar power plants rest in the drawers while the investors are waiting for legal security, and the local communities are fearing the changes that could shake the already fragile social balance. In the meantime, Brussels is increasing the pressure, demanding closure of the mines, reduction of emissions, and faster adjustment to green policies, but not many countries in the region have the luxury to treat the transition from fossil fuels solely as an ecological imperative. In this phase, transition resembles more of a political compromise than a strategic decision.
Regarding this, it is interesting how, recently, we are more and more speaking of the securitization of everyday life, where every lightbulb, every pump, and every pipe becomes a part of a broader security issue. Introduction of digital consumption surveillance systems, grid management with the help of algorithms, and “smart energy” projects are creating the sense of modernization, but also silent control. Energy is not only a commodity anymore, but a tool for managing society. In this sense, energy is increasingly becoming intertwined with politics, technology, and security, thus creating an entire new layer that functions unnoticed but efficiently.
When we glance at the year 2025, it is clear that several key points will conflict: the completion of LNG projects in Greece and Croatia, new EU financial packages, changes in Turkey and Russia, and maybe even a new wave of Chinese and Arab capitals, which bring along fresh capital, but also new obligations. These credits without political conditions often seem attractive, but in practice, they imply long-term concessions and the loss of control over key resources. Regarding this, we can say that the energy map of the Balkans is changing – not only along the pipeline directions, but in line with the centers of power.
Today, energy security is not the question of one supplier of one gas pipeline, but the ability of the region to manage its own complexities. And thus, the Balkans, as always, remains between – between Moscow and Brussels, between reality and ambitions, between traditional dependence and new discourse of sustainability. This “between” can be the space of insecurity, but also the space of freedom. Because, while Europe is seeking stability, the Balkans have long been living with the lack of it – and in this dynamic, paradoxically, is finding its own energy identity.
Autor: Miljan Petrović