February 2025
Five years after the Western Balkans countries adopted the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, it is evident that the energy transition process is taking place in the conditions of deep structural imbalance. Even though the European institutions and international financial actors have defined this framework as a path to modernization and alignment with the EU standards, in practice, it is evident that the economic, political, and social resilience of the region is much more pronounced than initially assessed. In other words, the implementation of measures is uncovering a series of complex relations between economic interests and political will. This opens up a series of questions on the real capacities of different communities to absorb energy sector reforms.
While Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina still rely on coal as a pillar of energy stability, North Macedonia and Albania are attempting to attract investment into renewable sources, above all through bilateral agreements and EU funds. Nevertheless, energy security remains the most sensitive part of the political DNA of the region – any sudden change in the structure of production causes a disruption similar to the immune response of society. The resistance to reforms in this sector can be seen as a kind of virus of instability, which affects the institutional organism before the concrete results of the transition appear.
The energy of the Western Balkans has long ceased to be a technical issue and has become an arena of geopolitical competition. The European Union is attempting to use regulatory mechanisms and investment funds to limit the influence of Russia and diversify supply sources, while Moscow is maintaining its presence through long-term energy contracts and infrastructure. At the same time, Turkey and Azerbaijan, through TANAP and TAP projects, are strengthening their position as key transit actors. In other words, energy transition in the region is not taking place in a vacuum – it is a part of a wider process of reallocation of power between the East and the West. This opens up a series of questions about the sovereignty of decisions and the ability of local actors to define their own energy strategy.
Even though all countries of the region formally accepted the obligation to conduct decarbonization by 2050, coal makes up more than half of the energy mix. The attempts at sudden closure of thermal power plants faced resistance from unions and local communities, which points to a lack of social immunity to fast changes. In a political discourse, the green transition is often perceived as an externally imposed obligation, and not as a part of the modernization process. In other words, in some cases, it becomes a mechanism of maintaining political distance from Brussels, and not the means for coming closer to European standards.
When it comes to renewable sources, the region has considerable potential, especially in hydrology, solar energy, and wind. However, institutional support for their implementation remains fragmented. Conflicts between environmental movements and investors over the construction of mini-hydropower plants show how the green transition can produce paradoxical effects: in an attempt to cure one dysfunction, the system generates another.
Although the concept of regional cooperation within the Berlin Process was conceived as a basis for a common approach to energy challenges, practice shows limited results. Lack of coordination, varying degrees of regulatory maturity, and political tensions have led to a situation where each country develops its own “energy immunity”, often incompatible with its neighbors.
In conclusion, the energy transition of the Western Balkans can be seen as a balancing process between ambition and reality. It requires not only political will but also systemic resilience, institutional coordination, and social adaptation. In other words, without creating social immunity to economic shocks and political pressures, the green agenda will remain a symptom of the desired transformation, not a proof of its success. This raises a number of questions about whether the region has the capacity to transition from the therapy phase to the recovery phase.
Author: Miloš Grozdanović