March 2025
While the attention of the world is still captured by the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and even Sudan, in the shadows of these big conflicts, in the shadows of geopolitical events, one of the longest-lasting but also most forgotten conflicts in Asia continues to simmer in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. Taking up more than 40% of the territory of Pakistan, and representing less than 6% of the population, this geographical space has for a long time been an epicenter of tensions between the federal Government in Islamabad and the local population, who feel economically excluded and politically smothered.
During 2024 and in the beginning of 2025, Baluchistan witnessed a new wave of repression, political assassinations, and military operations, under the guise of “anti-terrorist actions”. Even though officially deemed as security operations led against separatist groups, in practice, they are in fact a broader instrument for establishing political control and intimidation of civilians.
Historically speaking, the root cause of the conflict in Baluchistan is the deep cleavage between the identity of the local population and the centralized structure of the Pakistani state. Even though the region possesses vast amounts of natural resources, primarily gas, carbon, and copper, as well as a high potential for naval trade through the port of Gwadar, the local population has minimal profit from the exploitation of these resources. In fact, over 70% of the population of Baluchistan lives below the poverty line. Paradoxically, while the gas from Baluchistan supplies the industrial centers in Karachi and Punjab, numerous Baloch villages still do not have electricity. This economic asymmetry is deeply linked with the political dissatisfaction lasting more than seven decades.
Since the beginning of the century, movements such as the Baloch Liberation Army – BLA and the Baloch Republican Army – BRA, which are essentially terrorist organizations, have used guerrilla tactics and attacks on state institutions as a symbolic expression of resistance. Islamabad responds to their actions with a combined approach – through mass arrests, forced disappearances, and targeted killings of activists and journalists.
Exactly because of its geographical position and the existence of resources, Baluchistan became a regional interest knot. The most significant factor is the Chinese project of establishing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – CPEC, whose key infrastructure point – the port of Gwadar – lies exactly in the heart of Baluchistan. For Beijing, this project represents a window to the Indian Ocean and a strategic alternative to the Strait of Malacca, while for Islamabad, it represents a potential for economic development. Still, the local community deems such initiatives as “potential colonialism”, within which foreign companies and the state reap the profits, and the local community is banished from their properties. For that reason, in December 2024, a series of protests was launched under the leadership of Haq Do Tehreek, which resulted in violent clashes between the police and the protesters.
At the beginning of 2025, the Armed Forces of Pakistan launched a military operation, Radd-ul-Fasaad-II, directed towards “elimination of militant elements”. However, the testimonies from the field show that the main goal is to restrain the local community, and especially to destroy the infrastructure of media and civil organizations that previously reported on the state in the field. Moreover, it is indicative that the growing militarization has long-term consequences: young people, faced with hopelessness and repression, increasingly often join rebel groups. In this way, an “enchanted circle” is being formed, a self-generating circle of violence, from which, at the time being, there is no way out.
The political repression in Baluchistan is not an isolated case, but a symptom of a wider political process in Pakistan. After the political crisis that followed as a consequence of the fall of Imran Khan, the new Government in Islamabad, under the strong influence of the army, tends to centralize power and minimize regional autonomy.
In such a context, each form of regional dissidence is presented as a threat to national unity, which puts Baluchistan into a position of constant distrust. The democratic processes are denounced to simulation – elections take place, but in controlled conditions, and without any real chances for the local Baloch parties.
While the Western states are carefully monitoring each move of Islamabad in the context of relations with China and the stability of Afghanistan, the question of Baluchistan remains outside all diplomatic priorities. Not a single grand force is ready to question their partnership with Pakistan, due to the existence of “internal political issues”, especially in the context of the fight against terrorism. In this way, Baluchistan is becoming an example of an “invisible crisis”, a conflict that is inevitably ongoing, but without driving any media and/or diplomatic attention. At the same time, the Pakistani government is using exactly this lack of global attention as a cover for the continuance of systemic repressive measures.
Until March 2025, Baluchistan remains a space in which the energy of rebellion and the fatigue from the endless cycle of violence intertwine. If nothing changes, the region is risking becoming a permanent zone of low-intensity conflict – not strong enough to cause an international intervention, but sufficiently deep to destroy many generations. For the international community, the true challenge is not in choosing a side in the conflict, but in securing that development and security processes in Pakistan do not become an excuse for systemic discrimination of one nation. Thus, Baluchistan is quite a reminder that stability without justice is not stability – but only a temporary pause before the next wave of violence.
Author: Tanja Kazić, dr Violeta Rašković Talović