August 2025
Two years after the intensification of peace negotiations between the internationally-recognized Government of Yemen, the Houthis, and regional actors, led by Saudi Arabia, Yemen remains a space in which the political fluidity is intertwined with a deeply rooted security challenges, complex social fragmentation, and competition of foreign policy interests. Namely, the period after the negotiations is not marked by the classical post-conflict recovery, but the process of controlled chaos, in which the elements of tension de-escalation are combined with occasional escalations, especially in the territories where the rivalry of local structures still determines the dynamics of the security architecture.
Even though the peace negotiations are creating a platform for redefining the political framework, the reality on the field shows that not a single side is ready to completely abandon their maximalist goals. The Houthis continue to consolidate the institutions in the territory under their control, applying the management system that combines ideological discipline, fiscal centralization, and selective repression. Contrary to that, the internationally recognized Government relies on regional support, especially of Saudi Arabia, but still suffers from a limited institutional capacity and the fragmentation of security structures, which makes the establishment of a unique chain of command difficult.
The most significant challenge of the post-negotiation phase comes from the fact that the conflict in Yemen never truly developed as a binary confrontation. To the contrary, we are speaking of a complex mosaic of local actors, tribal loyalties, and economic networks, whereas each side has its own autonomy and interests. In the southern provinces, the transitional political body promotes the idea of autonomy, or even secession, maintains its own agenda, and represents a factor that limits the possibility for the formation of a unique political framework. Regarding this, the peace process must address the multi-layered nature of the Yemeni crisis to avoid the scenario of superficial stabilization, which would remain burdened by deep cracks and non-integrated actors.
The regional dimension remains the essential determinant of long-term stability. Saudi Arabia, after many years of military intervention, is shifting its strategy towards de-escalation, focusing on ensuring the security of the borders and preventing Iranian influence via the Houthis structures. Iran, on the other side, continues to build up its position by providing political, technological, and military support to the Houthis, perceiving Yemen as an important point in its wider strategy of projecting power in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf regions. This geopolitical duality remains the key framework within which every attempt at stabilization will take place, whereas the issue of securitization of everyday life in the Northern provinces is exhibited as one of the mechanisms for strengthening the Houthis autonomy.
The Yemeni economy represents possibly the biggest structural obstacle to a permanent transition. Over 70% of the population depends on humanitarian aid, while the key sources of revenue – oil, gas, and naval taxes – are under the fragmented control of various actors. Without a coordinated economic framework that would enable the creation of a minimal fiscal capacity, the political agreements remain fragile and limited. Regarding this, the international financial institutions and humanitarian actors are increasingly often insisting on the creation of an integrated mechanism for resource revenue management, which could represent one of the rare common interests of the conflicting sides.
The security sector demands a deep reform, but in the current conditions, that is not possible. Various armed formations function as parallel systems with their own command structures and financial sources. The attempt at creating unique national armed forces, at this moment, would probably cause additional tensions. Thus, partial integration, gradual coordination, and the creation of joint security mechanisms at specific territories are imposed as a more realistic approach. The depth of the crisis indeed reflects in the fact that not a single institutional solution can be one-sided, but must pass through a process of adaptation in the narrower context of each region.
Besides political and security factors, the humanitarian situation remains the key element of total stabilization. This long-lasting conflict has devastated public health, education, and infrastructure, thus creating a generation that is growing up in the conditions of extreme insecurity and economic paralysis. This is creating a risk of reproduction of conflict through social and economic frustrations, criminal networks, and extremist structures. The permanent stabilization, thus, must include not only the renewal of infrastructure and institutions, but also the creation of local economic possibilities, especially in provinces with a high level of poverty and unemployment.
The predictive framework for the next two years points to several possible scenarios. The most probable is the limited stabilization scenario, in which the tensions will reduce in the fields that are under the firm control of one side, while the sporadic incidents will continue to hinder the integral security image. In the best-case scenario, an inclusive political agreement could be formed, which would open up a space towards a federal management model, but this outcome demands that the actors be prepared for a compromise, which currently seems to be outside our reach. In the worst-case scenario, the failure of negotiations and the dissolution of temporary accords could lead to a new confrontation line, especially in the regions rich in resources.
After peace negotiations, Yemen still remains a society at the crossroads, in which the potential for stabilization is constantly colliding with structural limitations and geopolitical rivalries. Without a comprehensive approach that would simultaneously include political, economic, security, and social dimensions, the post-conflict process remains vulnerable and susceptible to revision. The future stability of Yemen will depend on the ability of local and international actors to recognize the interdependence of these factors and to gradually chape the institutional framework that could survive extraordinary circumstances, foreign pressures, and internal fragmentations.
Author: Tanja Kazić