September 2025
More than five decades after Richard Nixon declared the “war against drugs”, the United States of America enter a new phase of this long cycle, and in this phase, I recognize the shape of a complex transformation in which the crisis, instead of decreasing, is indeed spreading outside the framework of classical crime and is taking up the contours of a security challenge, and thus a geopolitical issue that affects the entire Western hemisphere. While I analyze this dynamics, I notice that the growing power of narco-cartels in Mexico, Colombia, and Central America, hand-in-hand with the sudden expansion of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, is creating a sort of a controlled chaos that is penetrating the internal politics of the US, at the same time changing the security architecture of the region.
In this image, the American Administration is strengthening its tendencies in 2025 to shape the strategy which combines traditional instruments of security with the methods of digital monitoring, financial monitoring, and cross-border operations, and in this combination, I see an attempt to offer an analytical depth of the crisis which is surpassing all current approaches. Regarding this, the White House and Pentagon present this policy as the most decisive turn in the fight against the cartels since the beginning of the century, even though the critics warn that such model can easily grow into a new phase of militarization of Latin America. Washington, however, states that the cartel infrastructure already reached the level of influence that surpasses the criminal framework and thus shifts into a zone in which the balance of power is defined.
At the foundation of this strategy lies the internal American crisis. Namely, during 2024, more than 90,000 people died from fentanyl overdose, a drug which production chain leads to Mexican cartels Sinaloa and Jalisco, and thus the suppliers of these precursors from China. This fact transforms the problem of narco-cartels into a foreign policy issue for the US, and thus the former American Administration, led by then President Biden, formed the National Council for Combatting Synthetic Drugs, a body that joins the Pentagon structures, DEA, CIA, and the Ministry of Finance, thus giving the entire operation the shape of a coordination attempt that changes the way the US perceive the issue of drugs.
In this framework, the American DEA budget increased by 40%, while the presence of American advisory teams in Mexico and Panama is spreading, now also including the intelligence and cyber components. In this move, I clearly see the idea of perceiving the issue of cartels no longer just through the physical control over a territory, but as a new paradigm of fight. In parallel with that, Washington is increasing the pressure on Beijing to limit exports of chemical precursors, which is transporting the fight against the cartels into the zone of rivalry of great powers.
The relations of US and Mexico in this period fall to the lowest level in the last decade, and thus, during 2024, the then President of Mexico Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador strongly reacted to the announcement of direct American investments, stating that the US is violating Mexican sovereignty. Still, the increase in the number of cartel attacks against the border patrols and the spread of their influence to the northern part of the country forced Mexico City to accept joint security operations in the end of 2024, when the “Partnership for Stability 2025” was signed. This agreement, which enables partial participation of American intelligence officers in operations against cartels, is creating a foundation for what Washington calls “an operational presence without formal intervention”, while it is also causing fear among the Mexican public from the return of the era of dependence on American military structures.
Regarding this, the US are including the countries of Central America, such as Guatemala and Honduras, where the cartels are linked to the political elites and parts of military structures, and thus, the new wave of corruption affairs confirm that the narco-culture is deeply rooted into the political DNA of the region. While I examine this development, I notice the formation of an exquisite network of parallel institutions, whose influence diminishes the state capacity and thus leads to the securitization of everyday life.
Contrary to previous strategies, which focused on the control of territory, the new American doctrine introduces the digital dimension of the fight. The use of crypto currencies, drones, and sophisticated financial networks makes the cartels technologically more agile and incomparable more complex than before, and thus, the US Ministry of Finance, together with Europol and Interpol, is launching operation Shadow Trace, which traces and freezes digital wallets linked with cartels. At the same time, CIA and NSA are introducing artificial intelligence algorithms into the analysis of communication, transport routes, and financial flows, which is transferring the fight into the “invisible front” and dramatizing the need to link data gathering with field operations.
Such spread of monitoring opens up new issues, because human rights organizations warn that this trend can easily transform into the system of permanent monitoring, and can thus lead to unwanted consequences to the democratic practice in the US. Regarding this, there is a pronounced danger that the fight against the cartels grow into a process that itself generates controlled chaos and creates a climate of permanent state of emergency.
The foreign policy aspect of this fight against additional complexity when I examine the role of China and Russia, since both countries are using the moment to strengthen their diplomatic and security ties in Latin America. China represents itself as an alternative economic and political partner to the countries that do not wish to accept the American security model, while Russia is deepening its cooperation with Venezuela and Cuba through military training and technical support programs. Such dynamics is additionally complicating the position of the US and thus confirms that the fight against the cartels is no longer just the issue of crime, but has become a part of the wider competition for regional influence.
By September 2025, it has become evident that the “war against drugs” is making a comeback to the political scene not as common policy, but as a paradigm that includes security, economic, and geopolitical dimensions. In this paradigm, I see the sign that the United States are entering a phase in which they must examine the limitations of their power and their stabilization strategies. The cartels are evolving into hybrid actors that combine violence, financial networks, and technological innovations, while the US are attempting to create a model of response that would follow this evolution. In this process, an impression is made that the Western hemisphere is entering a new cycle in which the fight against cartels is becoming a part of a broader transformation of the political landscape, and regarding this, the test of resilience of institutions set to defend security in the conditions that change daily.
Author: Miljan Petrović