September 2025
For years now, the region has been entering into a growing, deep phase of digital competition, but now, this process is gaining a new structure. Generative technologies are changing the nature of information dynamics, and the entire field is passing from classical media conflict into a complex system of digital monitoring and manipulation. Information no longer functions exclusively as a means of political influence, but is becoming a part of a wider “encryption of power”, in which various actors tend to code their own narratives into the information ecosystem of the region. In such an environment, state institutions, including those in Serbia, are constantly balancing between the protection mechanisms of digital sovereignty and the need to maintain an open and competitive information space.
Generative disinformation, thus, does not spread spontaneously. It emerges from precisely designed campaigns that use algorithmic policies as the basic mechanism of distribution. Short video footage, synthetically altered voices, manipulative photographs and texts, thus, become instruments for directing political expectations. The Balkans, thus, function as a space of an accelerated technological experiment, where big global actors test their strategies of digital influence. The United States and the European Union invest in strengthening media literacy and technical detection, while Russia, China, and several Middle Eastern actors are using sophisticated digital networks to broaden the scope of their own narratives. The mechanisms of action are not always visible, but the effects become clear when the changed communication habits of citizens are examined.
During 2025, the data from Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina show that the youth form the perception of international relations exclusively through digital platforms in over 60% of cases. This creates a specific risk: algorithms, and not the editing policies of conventional media, share the information environment. When the politics of algorithms take up the role of selecting content, the power over information passes into the hands of those who control the digital flow itself. Because of that, the fight for digital sovereignty is becoming a key element of regional security, especially for countries such as Serbia, which tend to preserve stability and sovereignty in the conditions of intense foreign pressure.
Foreign actors use different mechanisms. Russia is spreading a network of Telegram channels and other digital resources that distribute content about the alleged weaknesses of the Western political model. China is doing the same, but in a sophisticated form – through their own platforms and economically oriented narratives that promote stability and development. This is not classical propaganda, but a systemic use of the technological infrastructure for the gradual reshaping of political emotions in the region. In parallel with that, the Western actors are attempting to construct a narrative of transparency and institutional stability, but are often faced with the lack of trust, partially due to fragmented local media systems, and in part due to aggressive digital campaigns coming from the outside.
In the internal context of the region, disinformation finds a fertile ground due to identity cleavages and insufficiently formed institutions. The political structures in some countries use digital marketing and bot-nets to shape public opinion. This is not a new practice, but generative artificial intelligence enables a more precise and faster spread of narratives. In North Macedonia and Montenegro, the 2024–2025 election campaigns showed how a deepfake video can cause protests, while in Serbia, B&H, and in the territory of Kosovo and Metohija, digital manipulations are increasingly often becoming a part of narratives on national security and foreign threats. The stability of institutions, thus, depends on the ability to timely identify and neutralize manipulative content, and Serbia, in this domain, is investing in strengthening its own capacities, which is increasing the resilience of the state system.
The issue of weak institutional regulations remains. The region does not have unique standards for the classification and labeling of synthetic content. Croatia introduced the Law on Digital Transparency, but other countries did not develop suitable mechanisms. In such an environment, the information system functions as an open network of weak nodes, susceptible to external and internal manipulations. The lack of local technical capacities is creating additional pressure because countries rely on international programs and infrastructure, which sometimes causes doubt in the objectivity and motivation behind these projects.
Generative artificial intelligence is accelerating the dynamics of the crisis. Deepfake contents are nowadays produced with minimal technical knowledge, and easily accessible tools generate materials that might simulate any political narrative. This enables the creation of parallel realities in which different groups of citizens live in completely different information frameworks. Such fragmentation is weakening the institutional cohesion. When each group consummates a different version of a single political event, the public dialogue weakens the common foundation. This directly impacts the legitimacy of state institutions and the security and stability of the region.
The effects of generative manipulations become especially visible during political crises. Contents that simulate statements of politicians, old or new leaders, might incite protests, pressure on the institutions, or even a temporary destabilization of a society. In the context of Serbia, such content often targets the topics of state sovereignty and regional positioning. Because of this, strengthening local mechanisms of detection and monitoring becomes an issue of strategic significance, and not only a technical improvement.
The region, seen as a whole, becomes an exquisite laboratory for foreign actors. The multiethnic composition, the unsolved political issues, and extreme sensitivity to information manipulation make it an ideal space for testing new models of psychological influence and hybrid actions. The result is an ambiance in which political processes take place under the constant pressure of digital narratives, which is increasing the need for regulative and technical measures of protection.
By the fall of 2025, it is clear that disinformation can no longer be treated as a media problem. They are becoming an issue of national and regional security. An efficient response asks for a combination of three elements: precise regulations, local technological solutions, and long-term education. Only with an integrated approach can the countries reach digital sovereignty that enables them to protect the stability and strengthen institutional capacity. In the era in which information becomes the main weapon, the fight for the truth transforms into the fight for control of the digital space, and this represents the key challenge for the entire Western Balkans.
Author: Aleksandar Stanković