October 2025
Europe enters in 2025 into a new security paradigm. The sky above the continent has become a space for hybrid competition. The use of drones from Ukraine to the Middle East has changed the architecture of military power. It now resembles a system in which the classical supremacy is replaced by the techniques that are cheaper, faster, and broadly available. The miniaturization and commercialization of technology opened up a space to non-state actors. With this, the former encryption of power previously owned exclusively by big powers is destroyed.
Drones are no longer a weapon in a narrow sense of the word. They are an instrument of politics, energy, cyberspace, and operations of influence. Europe is attempting to fit them into a wider strategy of resilience. The defense can no longer be perceived solely as a military category. We are speaking of a broader system, resembling an algorithm, which must integrate information and institutions.
The hybridity of a threat lies in its flexibility and anonymity. The attacks against the infrastructure in Poland and in Baltic countries, as well as the North Sea sabotage, resemble testing the European defense. The drones are used without a formal proclamation of a conflict. Such incidents have a double effect. First, the military effect, through sabotage and reconnaissance. Second, the psychological effect is created through the creation of a feeling of constant vulnerability. A drone of unknown origin reduces the possibility of a clear diplomatic reaction. This is the new architecture of the politics of algorithm.
The EU is attempting to develop its own approach. Still, the technological race outside the continent leaves the European sector in a reactive position. The US and China lead the development of autonomous systems. Europe remains fragmented. Coordination is weak, and the development cycles are slow, while within the Union, there are some disagreements regarding constructing the strategy against this form of hybrid threats. Germany asks for stronger regulation. France is strengthening its offensive capacities. The Eastern part of the EU insists on NATO integration.
The drones are becoming a diplomatic instrument as well. The conflicts in peripheral Europe enable the actors to project their power without any direct engagement of troops. This form of “military neutrality with consequences” brings along a dilemma: how to respond to an attack that does not resemble a war, but still violates sovereignty? This issue directly enters the domain of digital sovereignty of states, because each incident also contains a digital trail that is difficultly attributed. At the same time, there is also a phenomenon of “drone diplomacy”. China, Turkey, and Israel use unmanned systems as technical gifts in exchange for political support. This is the new phase of encryption of power, where technology turns into a diplomatic currency.
Monitoring remains the most sensitive issue. Some states are strengthening their anti-drone systems and early warning networks. Others warn of the risk of abuse and privacy violations. The introduction of the European Network for Aerial Security implies gathering data on commercial drones’ flights. Without strict rules for the protection of data, the civil space might become militarized.
The era of drones points out the weaknesses of the European security identity. The national borders are no longer a sufficient line of defense. The threat is fast, cheap, and decentralized. That is why the response must be supranational. Therefore, the future of European security depends on three elements. The first one is technological sovereignty. The second one is diplomatic coordination. The third is social resilience. Without a harmonized strategy that intertwines the military, technological, and civilian components, Europe remains vulnerable. It becomes a project in someone else’s technological systems, and not its author. In the era of unmanned systems, each sky is a political field. If Europe does not construct capacity for a collective response to hybrid threats, the drones will remain the symbol of the new form of powerlessness – a threat that penetrates all layers of the encryption of power on which the European stability once rested.
Author: Aleksandar Stanković