July 2025
The energy geopolitics in 2025 clearly show that the Middle East is once again taking up the central position in global supply, especially at a time when the European dependence on stable oil and gas flows is becoming highly pronounced. The sanctions against Russia, the chronic instabilities in Libya and Yemen, as well as internal reorganization in the production capacities of Saudi Arabia and Iran, are all disrupting the existing flows and redefining the dynamics of the regional and European market.
In this image, pipelines remain one of the most significant levers of political power. Every redirection of routes – whether it be on the East Mediterranean-Europe route, via Turk Stream, or along the southern and central Mediterranean lines – represents a signal of change in the balance of powers. The energy interconnections impact the price stability, security of supply, and strategic autonomy of Europe more than any other infrastructural sector.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with the active role of Turkey, are attempting to optimize their exports through diversification and signing long-term contracts for LNG and crude oil supply to Europe. Projects such as the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Pipeline and the new gas interconnections via Greece are creating a framework in which the EU could reduce its dependence on Russian gas, but only at the price of high investments and long-term infrastructure planning.
Iran, after a partial release of sanctions in the first half of 2025, is using its gas and oil sector as an instrument of foreign policy. Lebanon and Syria remain unpredictable spots in the system – weak institutional control and the presence of irregular armed groups are creating a high-risk environment for any big infrastructural project. The instability in these zones is opening up the space for competition of regional forces, which directly impacts the continuity of supply.
During 2025, the European Union made some advancements in terms of diversification, above all through broadening the capacities of the LNG terminals in Croatia, Greece, and Italy, which ensures a more flexible rerouting of deliveries from Qatar, the US, and Norway. Still, despite additional capacities and increased deliveries, the dependence of Central and Eastern Europe on Russian gas remains politically and economically delicate.
The sanctions towards Russia and Belarus within the energy sector sped up the transition to alternative suppliers, at the same time increasing the prices of energy resources, which is especially felt by energy-intensive industries. With this, it is confirmed that the issue of energy economy is not only a technical and market challenge, but also a key geopolitical instrument.
In this context, the key pipelines function as leverages of strategic influence:
- Turk Stream and Eastern Mediterranean Gas Pipeline – enable Turkey to maintain the position of a dominant regional energy hub, with a direct influence on the EU-Russia relations.
- The trans-Balkan and Adriatic corridors – reduce exposure of Eastern and Central Europe to Russian streams, but also demand stable interstate coordination and reliable transit regimes.
- Iranian and Libyan projects – represent an instrument of regional projection of power, because they ensure for Tehran and the actors in Tripoli a wider maneuver space in defining prices and control of flows.
The most critical factor remains the political instability along the transit zones: each disruption, whether caused by local conflicts, diversions, or administrative blockages, can generate a disruption in the supply and thus cause a sudden increase in global prices.
- Europe remains exposed to an open energy crisis – the unexpected disruptions might cause new inflation waves and increase social tensions.
- The regional conflicts remain the tool of foreign policy – the Middle East and Levant are maintaining their potential of serving as spaces of proxy conflicts between Russia, the US, and regional actors.
- Investments and technologies as the amortization of risk – the spread of LNG capacities, modernization of pipelines, and diversification of sources can gradually reduce the exposure, but only when paired up with high political coordination of member states.
The most probable scenario for the next twelve months is the intensification of competition in the region, with a continuation of the slow but stable process of European diversification. In such an environment, the pipelines remain the key element of both economic sustainability and geopolitical positioning – an instrument that defines the security of supply, but also the rules of the game in the wider energy market.
Author: Miloš Talović